Tools · Trend and volatility
Two numbers, and the path between them.
Trailing return says which way a series has been going. Trailing volatility says how roughly it got there. Plotted together over time they trace a path rather than a point, and the path is usually more informative than either number alone.
Calculator
This page is showing the example series. The chart below plots 25 trailing 12-month readings, ending at a trend of +15.8% and volatility of 19.3%. Enable JavaScript to paste your own; the chart and method on this page do not need it.
Needs at least one more month than the window.
- Trailing return
- +15.8%
- over the last 12 months
- Trailing volatility
- 19.3%
- annualised, same window
- Readings
- 25
- one per month once full
Each small square is one month's trailing pair; the line joins them in time order. Movement left or right is a change in direction; movement up or down is a change in how rough the ride has been.
Reference
The same series at four window lengths.
A shorter window reacts faster and swings further; a longer one is steadier and late. The range columns show how much the choice of window changes what the series appears to be doing.
| Window | Readings | Trailing return, range | Trailing volatility, range | Latest return | Latest volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 34 | −12.7% to +16.6% | 2.4% to 32.3% | +2.5% | 17.1% |
| 6 months | 31 | −6.2% to +16.3% | 8.8% to 26.3% | +16.3% | 15.5% |
| 12 months | 25 | −9.2% to +22.8% | 12.2% to 19.7% | +15.8% | 19.3% |
| 24 months | 13 | −0.8% to +30.5% | 13.6% to 17.2% | +22.8% | 16.5% |
Every row describes the same 36 months. The window is not a detail of presentation: it decides what the reading is.
Method
What the two numbers are.
Both are plain descriptions of the window that has just passed. Neither is a forecast, and neither is a signal.
Trend
trend = ∏(1 + r) − 1 over the window
The compound return of the trailing window. Positive means the series finished the window above where it started; it says nothing about the route, which is what the second number is for.
Volatility
σ = stdev(window) × √12
The sample standard deviation of the window's monthly returns, annualised. The same definition the risk ratio calculator and the performance page use, so figures from all three are comparable.
Limits
What this is not.
- It is not the KyperX Capital regime model. This tool splits a single series by two trailing statistics. The classification described on the investment approach page is a different thing, built from cross-asset signals, and it is not published here or reproduced by this page.
- It is backward-looking by construction. Every reading describes the window that has already happened. A trailing window turns at the earliest one month after the series does, and usually later.
- The window length changes the picture. A short window reacts quickly and is noisy; a long one is stable and late. Neither is correct — they answer different questions.
- No thresholds are supplied. The chart has no shaded zones and no labels dividing it, because where any dividing line belongs depends on the series, and drawing one would imply a judgement this page is not making.
This tool is provided for general information only and is directed to wholesale and professional investors. It is not personal advice: it does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any person, and it is not an offer, invitation or recommendation to acquire any financial product. Nothing on this page is a signal, a recommendation or a forecast. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Definitions
Terms on this page.
Each links to the glossary entry, which states the convention the term assumes as well as what it means.
- Volatility — realised, annualised from the trailing window.
- Rolling return — the trailing return the pairing is plotted against.
- Autocorrelation — why a smooth series can understate risk.
- Cumulative return — compounded over the window.
Questions
Common questions.
Is anything I paste sent to KyperX Capital?
No. The series is parsed and both statistics calculated in your browser. Nothing is transmitted, recorded or stored, and this website receives none of it.
Does this show the KyperX Capital market regime?
No. It describes whatever series you paste, using two trailing statistics anyone can calculate. The regime classification used in the strategy is built differently and is not published.
What window length should I use?
Twelve months is a common default because it spans a full year of seasonality and gives enough observations for a volatility figure to be worth reading. Shorter windows respond faster at the cost of stability. Try more than one: if the picture changes completely with the window, that is itself worth knowing.
Why is there no forecast?
Because trailing statistics do not produce one. The path on the chart shows where a series has been; extending it would be a claim this page has no basis for and does not make.